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Free, publicly-accessible full text available February 1, 2026
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Abstract The ocean is a major carbon sink and takes up 25%–30% of the anthropogenically emitted CO2. A state‐of‐the‐art method to quantify this sink are global ocean biogeochemistry models (GOBMs), but their simulated CO2uptake differs between models and is systematically lower than estimates based on statistical methods using surface oceanpCO2and interior ocean measurements. Here, we provide an in‐depth evaluation of ocean carbon sink estimates from 1980 to 2018 from a GOBM ensemble. As sources of inter‐model differences and ensemble‐mean biases our study identifies (a) the model setup, such as the length of the spin‐up, the starting date of the simulation, and carbon fluxes from rivers and into sediments, (b) the simulated ocean circulation, such as Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Southern Ocean mode and intermediate water formation, and (c) the simulated oceanic buffer capacity. Our analysis suggests that a late starting date and biases in the ocean circulation cause a too low anthropogenic CO2uptake across the GOBM ensemble. Surface ocean biogeochemistry biases might also cause simulated anthropogenic fluxes to be too low, but the current setup prevents a robust assessment. For simulations of the ocean carbon sink, we recommend in the short‐term to (a) start simulations at a common date before the industrialization and the associated atmospheric CO2increase, (b) conduct a sufficiently long spin‐up such that the GOBMs reach steady‐state, and (c) provide key metrics for circulation, biogeochemistry, and the land‐ocean interface. In the long‐term, we recommend improving the representation of these metrics in the GOBMs.more » « less
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Abstract We assess the Southern Ocean CO2uptake (1985–2018) using data sets gathered in the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Project Phase 2. The Southern Ocean acted as a sink for CO2with close agreement between simulation results from global ocean biogeochemistry models (GOBMs, 0.75 ± 0.28 PgC yr−1) andpCO2‐observation‐based products (0.73 ± 0.07 PgC yr−1). This sink is only half that reported by RECCAP1 for the same region and timeframe. The present‐day net uptake is to first order a response to rising atmospheric CO2, driving large amounts of anthropogenic CO2(Cant) into the ocean, thereby overcompensating the loss of natural CO2to the atmosphere. An apparent knowledge gap is the increase of the sink since 2000, withpCO2‐products suggesting a growth that is more than twice as strong and uncertain as that of GOBMs (0.26 ± 0.06 and 0.11 ± 0.03 Pg C yr−1 decade−1, respectively). This is despite nearly identicalpCO2trends in GOBMs andpCO2‐products when both products are compared only at the locations wherepCO2was measured. Seasonal analyses revealed agreement in driving processes in winter with uncertainty in the magnitude of outgassing, whereas discrepancies are more fundamental in summer, when GOBMs exhibit difficulties in simulating the effects of the non‐thermal processes of biology and mixing/circulation. Ocean interior accumulation of Cantpoints to an underestimate of Cantuptake and storage in GOBMs. Future work needs to link surface fluxes and interior ocean transport, build long overdue systematic observation networks and push toward better process understanding of drivers of the carbon cycle.more » « less
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Abstract. As the largest active carbon reservoir on Earth, the ocean is a cornerstone of the global carbon cycle, playing a pivotal role in modulating ocean health and regulating climate. Understanding these crucial roles requires access to a broad array of data products documenting the changing chemistry of the global ocean as a vast and interconnected system. This review article provides a comprehensive overview of 60 existing ocean carbonate chemistry data products, encompassing compilations of cruise datasets, derived gap-filled data products, model simulations, and compilations thereof. It is intended to help researchers identify and access data products that best align with their research objectives, thereby advancing our understanding of the ocean's evolving carbonate chemistry.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available May 15, 2026
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Abstract This contribution to the RECCAP2 (REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes) assessment analyzes the processes that determine the global ocean carbon sink, and its trends and variability over the period 1985–2018, using a combination of models and observation‐based products. The mean sea‐air CO2flux from 1985 to 2018 is −1.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1based on an ensemble of reconstructions of the history of sea surface pCO2(pCO2products). Models indicate that the dominant component of this flux is the net oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2, which is estimated at −2.1 ± 0.3 PgC yr−1by an ensemble of ocean biogeochemical models, and −2.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1by two ocean circulation inverse models. The ocean also degasses about 0.65 ± 0.3 PgC yr−1of terrestrially derived CO2, but this process is not fully resolved by any of the models used here. From 2001 to 2018, the pCO2products reconstruct a trend in the ocean carbon sink of −0.61 ± 0.12 PgC yr−1 decade−1, while biogeochemical models and inverse models diagnose an anthropogenic CO2‐driven trend of −0.34 ± 0.06 and −0.41 ± 0.03 PgC yr−1 decade−1, respectively. This implies a climate‐forced acceleration of the ocean carbon sink in recent decades, but there are still large uncertainties on the magnitude and cause of this trend. The interannual to decadal variability of the global carbon sink is mainly driven by climate variability, with the climate‐driven variability exceeding the CO2‐forced variability by 2–3 times. These results suggest that anthropogenic CO2dominates the ocean CO2sink, while climate‐driven variability is potentially large but highly uncertain and not consistently captured across different methods.more » « less
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